Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 30.350565 33.545307 37.096606 41.369003 46.412772 52.232949 5.953926e+01
2025-07-20 25.346092 29.522069 34.555489 41.191685 49.905962 61.259412 7.771885e+01
2025-07-27 22.461168 27.174045 33.206319 41.749179 54.000978 71.778741 1.014066e+02
2025-08-03 20.150931 25.060679 31.630709 41.461856 56.600865 80.690802 1.263868e+02
2025-08-10 18.398233 23.385443 30.301649 41.133458 58.866548 89.544360 1.555907e+02
2025-08-17 17.127944 22.186707 29.425641 41.238768 61.716292 100.165481 1.948093e+02
2025-08-24 15.955919 20.984014 28.363994 40.824274 63.503979 109.318961 2.376521e+02
2025-08-31 14.979689 19.962405 27.441123 40.460145 65.248822 118.973951 2.910944e+02
2025-09-07 14.130967 19.050020 26.579887 40.051800 66.786032 128.755293 3.568780e+02
2025-09-14 13.435537 18.309593 25.910520 39.871663 68.726118 140.364024 4.481854e+02
2025-09-21 12.752049 17.533778 25.106528 39.326867 69.762450 150.101793 5.515370e+02
2025-09-28 12.570152 17.527086 25.570912 41.222648 76.712778 180.890566 8.819145e+02
2025-10-05 12.027720 16.917897 24.976053 41.016951 78.798891 198.178347 1.220889e+03
2025-10-12 11.571558 16.420573 24.536484 41.076183 81.625797 220.578500 1.846913e+03
2025-10-19 11.237351 16.100742 24.381431 41.704713 86.166198 254.146250 3.396114e+03
2025-10-26 10.808393 15.594131 23.844546 41.440040 88.183743 278.963695 6.077950e+03
2025-11-02 10.407731 15.111358 23.312961 41.118598 89.982631 305.178675 1.288655e+04
2025-11-09 10.092306 14.755694 22.989985 41.225903 93.159287 343.656868 5.423081e+04
2025-11-16 9.737999 14.313144 22.469503 40.812218 94.593091 374.207644 1.191745e+06
2025-11-23 9.414879 13.908417 21.993482 40.448434 96.133743 408.895588 NaN
2025-11-30 9.108943 13.518919 21.521097 40.040319 97.449295 445.335975 NaN
2025-12-07 8.847631 13.195999 21.158098 39.860276 99.577059 494.410674 NaN
2025-12-14 8.564700 12.821696 20.670136 39.315714 100.233505 532.536259 NaN